U.S. job growth likely slowed in July, with the unemployment rate forecast rising back to 4.2%, but that probably would be insufficient to spur the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates soon as tariffs are starting to fan inflation.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 73,000, less than almost all economists had forecast, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, matching the median projection. Average hourly earnings were up 0.3%, leaving them 3.9% higher over 12 months – outpacing inflation.

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