So rather than hope for a larger COLA in 2026, what retirees should actually hope for is a change to the way those raises are calculated. Using a more senior-specific index that measures changes in retiree costs like healthcare could lead to more generous COLAs in future years without requiring a scenario where everyone struggles due to inflation.

Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 is expected to be 2.5%, analysts said Wednesday, the same increase as this year, as consumer prices inched slightly higher in May but did not yet reflect the full impact of tariffs.