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Recognizing the challenges to traditional approaches to economic measurement—among others, declining survey response rates, the growing economic significance of hard-to-measure digital services, and ...

Low income and minority students are under-represented in gifted education programs. One explanation for this pattern is that the usual process for identifying gifted students, through parent and ...

China’s unprecedented expansion of higher education in 1999, increased annual college enrollment from 1 million to 9.6 million by 2020. We trace the global ripple effects of that expansion by ...

We use Chinese customs data to show that unofficial non-tariff barriers were responsible for 50\% of the overall reduction in Chinese imports from the U.S. during the height of the U.S.-China trade ...

We study the optimal monetary policy response to the imposition of tariffs in a model with imported intermediate inputs. In a simple open-economy framework, we show that a tariff maps exactly into a ...

We use a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of recent U.S. tariff increases on imports from Mexico, Canada, ...

The negative effect of distance on bilateral trade is one of the most robust findings in international trade. However, the underlying causes of this negative relationship are less well understood.

Financial repression can be used to avoid a government default when fiscal policy is constrained. We present a model showing that optimal financial repression progresses through successive stages with ...

The US economy has undergone a number of puzzling changes in recent decades. Large firms now account for a greater share of economic activity, new firms are being created at a slower rate, and workers ...

We use a controlled experiment to show that ability and belief calibration jointly determine the benefits of working with Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI improves performance more for people with low ...

We review historical budget trends and basic fiscal processes. We provide new estimates of the budget outlook, incorporating the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and finding that ...