We study the role of expertise in new work–novel occupational roles that emerge as technological and economic conditions evolve–using newly available 1940 and 1950 Census Complete Count files and ...

We document new evidence on the capitalization, funding structure, and performance of private credit funds using comprehensive fund- and asset-level data covering most of the industry. Private credit ...

We quantify how structural changes in the U.S. labor market have contributed to wage stagnation over the past four decades by weakening the job ladder. Using Current Population Survey microdata from ...

Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees requires that cumulative carbon dioxide emissions remain within a finite remaining carbon budget. How this budget is allocated across countries raises questions ...

To study this transformation, we compile a comprehensive, synchronized database spanning the pharmaceutical drug development supply chain, covering scientific publications, clinical trials, drug ...

We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade in which the temporal structure of production is a key determinant of comparative advantage. Building on Böhm-Bawerk’s theory of capital, ...

While the correlation between working and voting is positive, I provide the first causal evidence that this relationship is negative. Using five decades of Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) expansions ...

We analyze monetary policy responses to noisy financial conditions in an open economy where exchange rates and domestic asset prices affect aggregate demand. Noise traders operate in both markets, and ...

We analyze the effect of California's $20 fast food minimum wage (Assembly Bill 1228), enacted in September 2023 and implemented in April 2024, on consumer prices using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' ...

Yet, though Africa will produce much of the world’s future workforce, there is little information on college students’ financial constraints. Novel data from a Zambian flagship university show that ...

We develop a framework to measure the severity of financial constraints for young firms across countries. Using ORBIS balance-sheet data for 23 economies, we show that short-term leverage rises while ...

Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditional on prior context. We use these probabilities to construct an entropy-based ...