The 2025 NFL season is more than halfway complete now that Week 11 is in the books. Only seven full weeks of regular season action remain until the start of the playoffs. Which means, while the postseason picture is far from finalized, the race for playoff berths -- and top seeding -- is well underway.

That being said, the Patriots are still seen as the favorite to end up as the No. 1 seed and owner of the first-round playoff bye. According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the team of head coach Mike Vrabel has a 46% chance to earn the top spot in the conference, compared to 23% for the Broncos and 20% for the Colts.

The Colts play one of the NFL's premier games traveling to Kansas City on Sunday, but what does it mean for the playoffs?

With Brock Purdy back in the lineup, the computer seems to be a big fan of the 49ers (7-4). San Francisco is being given a 80.4% chance of making the postseason, which means the computer is pretty confident that the NFC West is going to be sending three teams into the playoffs.

5. Buffalo Bills (7-3), wild card No. 1: QB Josh Allen's big game Sunday moved Buffalo up one spot in the seeding but got the Bills no closer to the AFC East lead. Tough game in Houston looms Thursday night. Remaining schedule: at Texans, at Steelers, vs. Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets

How did Week 11 change the playoff picture? Which teams have the most at stake in Week 12? Ali Bhanpuri breaks down the 2025 NFL playoff race using the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model.

The loss dropped quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills to 7–4, two games behind the Patriots for first place in the AFC East. Buffalo fell from the No. 5 seed in the AFC to the No. 6 seed behind the Chargers (7–4). If the playoffs started Friday, the Bills would travel to Indianapolis for a wild-card round matchup against the Colts.

The Denver Broncos are the hottest team in the NFL. Denver's won 11 consecutive home games dating back to 2024 and eight straight games this season, the longest active streak in the NFL. With a 9-2 record, the Broncos are currently leading the AFC West -- and the entire conference.

Before the season, it wouldn't have been outlandish to believe that a Week 12 game between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs would feature one team in contention for the AFC's No. 1 seed with the other just hoping to sneak into the playoffs. That's what Colts at Chiefs is, but with a twist.

The Colts entered their Week 11 bye as the No. 1 seed in the conference, but lost some ground on both Denver and New England. Following wins this week by the Broncos and Patriots, both teams improved to 9-2 on the season, taking a half-game lead over the 8-2 Colts.