The economy was supposed to crumble. The trade war was expected to escalate out of control. Markets were forecast to plunge. None of that has happened. But Trump’s early trade victory may be short-lived.

"We still believe the most likely outcome is slow growth and firm inflation: Not a recession, but a backdrop where the adverse effects of trade and immigration controls on growth outweigh the boost from deregulation and fiscal largesse," Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas wrote.

France and Germany have warned about the economic fallout from the 15 percent tariffs European goods face in the U.S.